Possible scenario
Severe Flooding Compounds
20% Chance
Trudy’s rainfall falls on saturated ground left by recent storms, producing broader flooding and landslides than a typical Category 2 landfall. This would deepen fiscal and humanitarian pressure on Mexico’s federal and state governments, though global market effects would remain modest.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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