Possible scenario
Policy Underwhelms Buyers
30% Chance
The subsidy is viewed as too small to offset falling price expectations, weak income growth and developer delivery concerns. Buyers delay purchases in anticipation of deeper discounts or broader central-government support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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