Possible scenario
Measured Demand Lift
45% Chance
The mortgage-interest subsidy gives first-time buyers a modest affordability boost and improves sentiment without fully reversing the property downturn. The effect is most visible in cities where households still have income confidence and inventories are manageable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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