Possible scenario
Broader Rescue Follows
15% Chance
The subsidy becomes the first step in a more coordinated stabilization package involving the PBOC, Ministry of Finance and city governments. Investors interpret the move as evidence that Beijing is no longer relying only on piecemeal demand-side support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.9%
- Finance +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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