Possible scenario
European Pillar Hardens
30% Chance
France and the UK respond by accelerating a European security pillar outside the Bergen Group, using their nuclear deterrents, expeditionary forces and defense-industrial bases as anchors. The Baltics, Poland and several Nordics press for concrete guarantees, but some governments hesitate to openly break with Washington.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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