Possible scenario
Verified Chinese Pullback
45% Chance
China substantially reduces overt dual-use shipments, financial facilitation, and intelligence-linked assistance to Iran after the Trump-Xi warning. Washington treats the move as credible enough to delay broader secondary sanctions while keeping surveillance and customs enforcement elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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