Possible scenario
Broader Bargain Emerges
18% Chance
The Iran pullback becomes part of a wider US-China negotiation covering sanctions enforcement, tariffs, export controls, and military-to-military channels. This would not resolve the strategic rivalry, but it could lower the near-term probability of a sanctions shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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