Possible scenario
Contained Criminal Investigation
42% Chance
Investigators treat the Carletonville tavern massacre and related shootings as targeted criminal violence rather than the start of a broader insurgent or terror campaign. SAPS resources are concentrated in Gauteng and surrounding areas, with the national market impact remaining minimal.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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