Possible scenario
Unamended Turkish Ratification
42% Chance
The Justice and Development Party and its nationalist allies move the Mecca Pact through parliament substantially as submitted. The mutual defense clause is approved without major carve-outs, reinforcing the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan security framework already invoked earlier in October.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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