Possible scenario
Legislative Delay
20% Chance
Parliamentary review slows as opposition parties demand more detail on the first invocation of the pact and its budgetary consequences. The pact remains politically viable, but implementation loses near-term momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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