Possible scenario
NATO Reinforces Bulgaria
45% Chance
NATO answers Sofia's request with a defensive package of air-defense assets, surveillance aircraft, and expanded Black Sea air policing. This is the most likely path because it signals alliance resolve while avoiding direct strikes on Russian assets unless attacked.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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