Possible scenario
Hybrid Attacks Continue
25% Chance
Russia denies involvement or blames Ukraine, while drones, mines, or unattributed strikes continue near Bulgarian and Romanian waters. The conflict remains below the NATO collective-defense threshold, but maritime insurance and grain-shipping risks rise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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