Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
18% Chance
Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and NATO pursue a deconfliction mechanism to reduce the chance of another strike in NATO waters. Russia may accept tactical restraint if it avoids a direct confrontation with the alliance while preserving pressure on Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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