Possible scenario
Conditional Compromise Approved
30% Chance
IDB President Ilan Goldfajn and key shareholders broker a compromise that allows some financing to proceed under strict controls, likely focused on humanitarian, electricity, water, or migration-related spending. This outcome lets the bank avoid a full political rupture while reducing the risk that funds strengthen Maduro directly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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