Possible scenario
Premature Announcement Unravels
32% Chance
Kyiv's statement that it has no information proves substantive: Trump announced an understanding reached with Moscow before Ukraine accepted it. Washington tries to reframe the claim as a proposal, while Moscow exploits the confusion to blame Kyiv for obstruction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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