Possible scenario
Fragile Truce Holds
38% Chance
Trump's announcement is broadly confirmed within days as a narrow moratorium on attacks against power plants, substations, refineries and ports. Kyiv frames it as a temporary humanitarian measure rather than a political concession, while Moscow presents it as proof that Washington can deliver Ukrainian compliance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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