Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
20% Chance
The announcement fails to restrain either side, and the recent pattern of attacks on Ukrainian power assets and Russian refinery capacity intensifies. This is the main downside path for markets because it raises winter power, refined-products and Black Sea logistics risks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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