Possible scenario
French Unrest Widens
20% Chance
The mass arrests in France become the larger driver of events, with Iranian criticism serving as an external irritant. Student groups, unions, and opposition parties could turn the policing issue into a broader challenge for the French government.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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