Possible scenario
Diplomatic Downgrade
25% Chance
The dispute spills into diplomatic and cultural relations following Iran's closure of the French embassy language center. Paris could respond with restrictions on Iranian cultural or official activity, while stopping short of a full break in relations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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