Possible scenario
Policy Bargain Emerges
20% Chance
Musk’s scale of support gives him influence inside Republican policy debates, but also exposes tensions between pro-business deregulation and anti-EV populism. The market reaction depends on whether GOP leaders accommodate Musk-linked industries or keep a harder line on subsidies and industrial policy.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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