Possible scenario
Orderly Bond Rotation
45% Chance
Investors treat BlackRock's move as confirmation that high Treasury yields are finally attractive after the sharp 2026 selloff. US equities soften modestly, especially expensive growth shares, while duration-sensitive assets get a short-term bid.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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