Possible scenario
Oil Shock Persists
30% Chance
The most direct continuation of the timeline is that Middle East disruptions keep crude prices elevated. This sustains inflation pressure in Canada and other import-sensitive economies, limiting central banks' ability to look through the shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.