Possible scenario
Inflation Pressure Eases
20% Chance
A de-escalation or evidence of limited CPI pass-through reduces the inflation threat from crude. Markets unwind some of the oil-risk premium and reassess the need for additional BoC tightening.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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