Possible scenario
Sticky Inflation Repricing
30% Chance
A significant probability is that investors pair the 3.6% COLA with the 3.7% September inflation reading and conclude that inflation remains too sticky. That pushes Treasury yields and breakevens modestly higher and weighs on rate-sensitive equity sectors.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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