Benefits Lift Consumption

The most likely outcome is that markets treat the 3.6% Social Security increase as a routine inflation-indexed adjustment with a modest boost to household cash flow. Retiree-heavy spending categories such as groceries, pharmacy, and basic services see limited positive read-through, while broad market effects remain small.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.