Possible scenario
Short Safety Stand-Down
38% Chance
OpenAI treats the halt as a containment and assurance exercise rather than a permanent stop to frontier development. The most likely path is a temporary freeze while internal tooling, sandbox controls, and model-evaluation gates are rebuilt.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services -0.6%
Tickers
- AMD-3.0%
- NVDA-2.5%
- MSFT-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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