Possible scenario
Compute Deals Reworked
20% Chance
The halt forces OpenAI, Microsoft, AMD, Nvidia, and cloud partners to revisit delivery schedules and capacity commitments. This scenario focuses on commercial fallout rather than regulatory action, with the largest impact on AI accelerator demand assumptions.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.7%
- AMD-3.6%
- CRWV-1.1%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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