Possible scenario
Deregulatory Line Holds
45% Chance
Trump's denial signals that the administration is unlikely to embrace Gates's catastrophic-risk framing in the near term. The most likely path is continued AI promotion with narrow safety guidance under the June 2026 oversight order rather than binding restrictions on frontier models.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.6%
- MSFT+1.3%
- META+1.0%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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