Possible scenario
Rotation Beats Selloff
20% Chance
The market response becomes more of a factor rotation than a broad liquidation. Higher nominal yields hurt growth multiples, but financials, energy, and some value sectors hold up better than the Nasdaq 100.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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