Possible scenario
MoU Revival Advances
45% Chance
Iran and Pakistan use the 81st UN General Assembly to restart the Islamabad MoU with a practical package on border security, consular coordination, and trade facilitation. The recent U.S.-Iran peace deal and Pakistan's mediation role give both governments political cover to deepen cooperation without appearing to concede on sovereignty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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