Possible scenario
Targeted Military Retaliation
24% Chance
The U.S., UAE, or Israel conducts a limited response against IRGC maritime assets, drone infrastructure, or missile launch points. The objective would be deterrence rather than regime-level escalation, but markets would still price higher near-term conflict risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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