Possible scenario
Regional Diplomacy Pause
26% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and China use backchannels to press Iran to halt attacks while the UAE limits certain tanker movements. This route is plausible because Tehran may have demonstrated capability without wanting to trigger U.S. strikes or a formal GCC military response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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