Possible scenario
Expanded Naval Escort
36% Chance
Washington, Abu Dhabi, and other GCC states expand convoy operations through the Strait of Hormuz without immediately moving to full-scale retaliation. This is the most likely path because the U.S. and UAE have strong incentives to restore shipping confidence while avoiding a direct regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.