Possible scenario
Tariff Dispute Reopens
15% Chance
Soybeans remain excluded from tariff cuts, undercutting the commercial logic of sustained U.S. purchases. The market interprets the buying as state-directed and fragile, with renewed risk that agricultural trade becomes a bargaining chip.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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