Possible scenario
Margins Absorb Costs
25% Chance
Producer inflation remains concentrated in imported inputs, freight, diesel, machinery, and intermediate goods. Companies with heavy logistics, industrial production, and low pricing power guide margins lower while energy and refining names remain relatively supported.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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