Possible scenario
Fed Reprices Hawkish
45% Chance
The 6.3% September PPI reading reinforces the view that tariff and diesel-cost pass-through is no longer transitory. Markets price fewer Fed cuts, higher breakeven inflation, and renewed pressure on rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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