Possible scenario
Short Full Closure
22% Chance
Commercial traffic through the strait effectively stops for one to three days as insurers, shipowners and charterers suspend transits. Iran may not issue a formal closure decree, but the practical result is a temporary halt to a critical oil and LNG corridor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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