Possible scenario
Coercive Harassment Continues
38% Chance
Iran continues using IRGC naval units to force selected tankers to reverse course while avoiding a mass-casualty incident or a formal closure order. This is the most likely path because it preserves Iranian leverage over Hormuz without immediately triggering a large U.S.-led military response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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