Possible scenario
Managed Licensing Regime
40% Chance
China implements the 2 trillion-parameter export ban as a licensing regime rather than a blanket commercial shutdown. Large Chinese AI firms face review and documentation requirements, but regulators preserve room for approved cloud APIs, enterprise deployments, and model partnerships.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.7%
- BABA-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.