Possible scenario
Export-Control Spiral
25% Chance
The Chinese model-control decision is interpreted in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo as the next stage of AI strategic decoupling. Policymakers respond with new controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access, model training support, or data-center services tied to China.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.1%
- AMD-1.6%
- BABA-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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