Possible scenario
Domestic Stack Acceleration
20% Chance
The ban reinforces a policy push to keep frontier-scale AI capabilities inside China and anchor them on domestic chips, data centers, and cloud services. Chinese firms adapt by emphasizing China-only deployments, smaller open-weight releases, and state-approved enterprise products.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Tickers
- BABA+1.7%
- NVDA-0.8%
- AMD-0.6%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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