Possible scenario
Allied Backlash
20% Chance
The child-casualty toll and Palantir's human-error defense trigger allied political backlash, especially in Europe where AI weapons oversight is more sensitive. NATO does not abandon AI-enabled targeting, but rollout schedules and procurement reviews become more restrictive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Industrials -1.5%
Tickers
- -9.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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