Possible scenario
U.S. Posture Adjusts
15% Chance
Washington responds to sustained vulnerability by dispersing forces, hardening bases or reducing exposure at selected locations. This is less dramatic than a regional withdrawal but would mark a visible change in U.S. force management across Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.