Possible scenario
Limited Proxy Escalation
30% Chance
Iran-aligned groups use drones, rockets or cyber operations to demonstrate that U.S. facilities remain exposed without crossing into full regional war. The most likely escalation is calibrated and deniable, forcing U.S. defensive moves and possibly limited retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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