Possible scenario
Renewed Gulf Disruption
20% Chance
The market interprets depleted Western inventories as increasing vulnerability to any renewed Gulf disruption. A shipping incident or military warning in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a larger risk premium because there is little spare inventory cushion left.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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