Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Cycle
25% Chance
Moscow publicly blames Kyiv for the deaths and uses the attack to justify another retaliatory strike package against Ukrainian infrastructure. The response remains within the existing war pattern, limiting immediate global-market spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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