Possible scenario
Refining Campaign Widens
20% Chance
Ukraine continues prioritizing Russian refining capacity, seeing fuel infrastructure as a high-impact military and economic target. Repeated strikes would raise the probability of temporary product-export limits and higher regional fuel prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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