Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Ilsky refinery fire is contained and Russia treats the deaths as a serious but localized wartime incident. Physical damage limits some Russian product output, but there is no immediate step-change in the broader war or global oil supply.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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