Possible scenario
Protests Spread Nationally
27% Chance
The arrest of the KP chief minister becomes a rallying point for PTI, widening unrest beyond KP into Punjab, Islamabad, and Karachi. The state responds with curfews, internet restrictions, and mass detentions, increasing political and market stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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