Possible scenario
Emergency Consolidates Control
38% Chance
The federal government and security establishment move quickly to neutralize the PTI government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, appointing an administrator and restricting PTI mobilization. Courts hear petitions but do not immediately reverse the emergency actions, making this the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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